Some bullish predrictions for online gambling

17.10.2006

Analysts are predicting that online gambling will continue to move forward despite the passing of a law in the United States that seeks to disrupt online gambling financial transactions from US residents to Internet gaming sites, reports the Associated Press.

"There is growth in this industry even without the United States," said Blackmont Capital technology analyst Wojtek Nowak. "The drive into broadband Internet in Asia and Europe still makes this an interesting sector."

Most publicly traded companies that operate online gambling sites have announced plans to abandon the U.S. market to focus on other regions.

"That is where growth will have to come from," Nowak said, naming also Eastern Europe and South America as regions for potential growth.

Online gambling is expected to expand to a $15 billion industry this year from $12 billion in 2005, according to DesJardins Securities analyst David Shore, who cited statistics from Global Betting and Gaming Consultants.

While the U.S. market accounts for half the Internet gambling market, online betting equaled less than 4 percent of the estimated $260 billion global land-based gambling market, Shore said.

Analysts assume the preponderance of American bettors online has more to do with easy high-speed Internet access - which enables the fast transmissions needed to load data from the Internet gaming sites - than a lack of gambling culture in the rest of the world.

The United States has 36 percent of all broadband connections in the 30 member countries of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, according to an OECD report released last week. But Europe, in particular is catching up. "The strongest per-capita subscriber growth comes from Denmark, Australia and Norway," the report said.

In Asia, Korea and Japan have high rates of broadband penetration, but China, the largest nation by population, lags.

"The difficulty with China is that a fragmented financial system has kept operators away," Nowak said. "But in general, software companies are looking to Asia as a potential growth market."

As the rest of the world continues to improve Internet access, Nowak said, the online gambling sites will garner a larger audience.

"The Internet is a good medium for gambling," he said. "It assures privacy and you can conduct it from the comfort of your home."

That is not to say there will not be other hurdles, the AP report observes. Gambling is generally illegal in China, for example, and Japan only allows bets on a few types of activities, such as horse racing. In China and other developing nations, cash is still king, so although gambling is part of the culture, some bettors may be wary of paying online.

In Europe, instead of banning Internet gambling, some countries are trying to regulate and tax the industry. Austria and Italy have taken steps to allow domestic online gambling, as has the United Kingdom. And the European Commission has indicated that private online gambling sites cannot have less access to bettors than the state-run lottery monopolies that generate billions in tax revenue for most European countries.

"They are taking the opposite approach in Europe and it's going to be an opportunity for growth for the companies that have activities there," DesJardins' Shore said.

Among them are U.S.-listed Cryptologic. With enactment of the law, the company lost about $30 million in revenue in the United States, or a quarter of its total, which it will seek to replace in Europe and Asia. Nowak said that could take up to five years. "It's going to grow at 20 percent a year, but that's a lot to recover," he said.

"I would argue that those companies that expunged their U.S. exposure are now lower-risk investments," Nowak said.